Lack of Conviction in Institutions' Bitcoin Positioning

Despite bitcoin's recent 7% price surge to $74,740.22, market conviction remains weak due to key risks such as the upcoming US inflation report and US-Iran talks. Institutions are buying call options to bet on potential gains, but also purchasing put options for protection against losses. The demand for puts is reflected in the options skew, which remains negative across all time frames, indicating a lingering bias towards put options. The US consumer price index for March is expected to show increased inflation, potentially leading to market volatility. The outcome of the US-Iran talks may also impact financial market stability and the price of bitcoin. The ICE BofA US Bond Market Option Volatility Estimate Index, which reflects volatility in US Treasury futures, has shown a recent decrease, indicating calmer conditions in the bond market and a positive signal for crypto bulls.