According to Ron Hammond, the head of policy at Wintermute, a prominent crypto market maker, the Crypto Clarity bill has a 30% chance of being passed this year. Hammond's cautious outlook stems from the numerous challenges the bill faces, including political friction, stalled negotiations, and uncertain timelines, despite the progress being made in Washington.
The Clarity Act aims to establish clear regulations for the crypto market structure in the U.S., including the oversight of digital assets by the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Hammond's estimate is in line with other market signals, such as a recent Punchbowl survey of lobbyists and staffers, which put the odds at 26%, and the prediction market Kalshi, which has odds slightly above even. The uncertainty surrounding the bill's trajectory is underscored by the spread in these estimates. Hammond, who will be speaking at CoinDesk's Consensus Miami conference, acknowledges that there is incremental progress, with lawmakers pushing to move the bill through committee, possibly as early as April 20.
However, he cautions that such timelines have been fluid for months. The passage of the Clarity Act is seen as crucial for institutional adoption of crypto, as it would provide clear rules on which digital assets are securities versus commodities and define how they can be traded, custodied, and regulated in the U.S.
The current fragmented and uncertain framework has kept many large asset managers, banks, and pension funds on the sidelines due to legal and compliance risks. A comprehensive market structure law would reduce this ambiguity, giving institutions the confidence to increase their exposure to crypto, launch new products, and integrate crypto more fully into traditional financial systems.
One of the main hurdles to the bill's passage is the opposition from traditional financial institutions, particularly regarding the issue of whether stablecoins should offer yield. According to Hammond, banks remain the biggest obstacle, and negotiations have been stuck despite attempts by various parties, including Coinbase, the White House, and the bill's drafters, to find a solution.
The dispute has already led to the failure of at least one proposed compromise, and expectations for a new version are tempered. Hammond notes that the resistance from banks is shaping the politics around the bill, particularly for Democrats, who are navigating a difficult balancing act. Some lawmakers who have accepted crypto industry funding are now facing pressure to take a stance on the issue.
Additionally, unresolved concerns around decentralized finance (DeFi) and anti-money laundering compliance are adding to the complexity. Hammond believes that the bill still has a viable path forward, despite the challenges, and that progress in committee and continued negotiations could keep it alive into midyear, when political incentives may shift.
For Wintermute, the outcome of the Clarity Act is significant, as the firm is expanding its U.S. footprint and growing its New York team. Hammond emphasizes that the passage of the bill in 2026 will require breakthroughs that have so far proved elusive, and for now, his estimate of a 30% chance of passage remains.