According to Ron Hammond, head of policy at Wintermute, a crypto market maker, the Crypto Clarity Act has a 30% chance of passing this year, despite signs of progress in Washington. Hammond points to a complex legislative process and uneven progress as key factors. The bill seeks to establish clear rules for crypto market structure regulation in the US, including the oversight of digital assets by the Securities and Exchange Commission and Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Hammond's estimate is in line with other market signals, including a recent Punchbowl survey and prediction market Kalshi. While there is light at the end of the tunnel, Hammond cautions that the bill's trajectory remains uncertain, with hurdles including the issue of stablecoins offering yield and opposition from traditional financial institutions. The passage of the Clarity Act is seen as crucial for institutional adoption of crypto, as it would provide clear rules and reduce ambiguity.
However, the current fragmented framework has kept many large asset managers, banks, and pension funds on the sidelines due to legal and compliance risks. Hammond believes that progress in committee and continued negotiations could keep the bill alive, but notes that breakthroughs are needed for passage in 2026.