According to Ron Hammond, Wintermute's head of policy, the Crypto Clarity Act faces significant hurdles, leading him to estimate its chances of passing this year at around 30%. Despite momentum building in Washington, the legislative process is advancing unevenly, with multiple moving parts. The bill aims to establish clear rules for crypto market structure regulation in the US, including how the SEC and CFTC can oversee digital assets.
Hammond's estimate aligns with other market signals, but the bill's trajectory remains uncertain. Lawmakers are pushing to move the bill through committee, with some aiming for a vote as early as April 20. However, Hammond cautions that timelines have been fluid for months. The passage of the Clarity Act is seen as crucial for institutional adoption of crypto, as it would establish clear rules for digital assets and reduce ambiguity.
Traditional financial institutions, particularly banks, remain a significant obstacle, with disputes over stablecoin yield. Negotiations have stalled, with a proposed 'yield deal' failing to satisfy either side.
The politics around the bill are complex, with Democrats facing a difficult balancing act due to crypto industry funding and unresolved concerns around DeFi and anti-money laundering compliance. Despite the challenges, Hammond believes the bill still has a viable path forward, with progress in committee and continued negotiations potentially keeping it alive into midyear. The outcome of the Clarity Act is consequential for Wintermute, which is expanding its US footprint and growing its New York team. Hammond emphasizes that passage in 2026 will require breakthroughs that have so far proved elusive, with his estimate of 30% remaining a reminder that progress in Washington does not always translate into results.