Lack of Conviction in Institutions' Bitcoin Positions

Despite bitcoin's recent 7% price surge to $74,526.74, market conviction remains weak due to the upcoming US inflation report and US-Iran truce talks. Institutions are adopting a cautious stance, buying call options while also purchasing downside protection. According to QCP Capital, there is demand for the $45 call expiring in May for BlackRock's spot bitcoin ETF, indicating an expected price rise. However, the demand for puts, which offer protection against declines, persists. The US consumer price index for March is expected to show a significant increase in annualized inflation, potentially leading to market volatility. The meeting between Iranian and US delegates may also impact financial market stability and bitcoin's rally. The ICE BofA US Bond Market Option Volatility Estimate Index has shown a decrease in uncertainty around inflation and interest rates, which could be a positive signal for crypto bulls.