Wintermute's head of policy, Ron Hammond, has expressed cautious optimism regarding the Crypto Clarity Act, estimating a 30% chance of passage this year. Hammond pointed to the complex legislative process, with multiple moving parts, as a major challenge. The Clarity Act aims to establish clear guidelines for crypto market structure regulation in the US, including the oversight of digital assets by the Securities and Exchange Commission and Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Hammond's assessment is in line with other market signals, including a recent Punchbowl survey and prediction market Kalshi.
Despite the uncertainty, Hammond sees incremental progress, with lawmakers pushing to move the bill through committee and some aiming for a vote as early as April 20. However, he cautioned that timelines have been fluid for months.
The passage of the Clarity Act is seen as crucial for institutional adoption of crypto, as it would provide clear rules on which digital assets are securities versus commodities and define how they can be traded and regulated. The current fragmented framework has kept many large asset managers, banks, and pension funds on the sidelines due to legal and compliance risks. Hammond identified traditional financial institutions, particularly banks, as the biggest obstacle, citing their opposition to stablecoins offering yield. Negotiations have been stuck, with a recent proposed 'yield deal' failing to satisfy either side.
The dispute has significant implications for Democrats, who are navigating a difficult balancing act due to their acceptance of crypto industry funding. Additional political headwinds may emerge in the coming months, including scrutiny around former President Donald Trump's crypto-related dealings.
Despite the challenges, Hammond believes the bill still has a viable path forward, with progress in committee and continued negotiations potentially keeping it alive into midyear. The outcome of the Clarity Act is critical for Wintermute, which is expanding its US footprint and growing its New York team. Hammond emphasized that passage in 2026 will require breakthroughs that have so far proved elusive, and for now, his estimate of a 30% chance of passage remains unchanged.