The Crypto Clarity Act, aimed at establishing clear regulations for the crypto market in the US, faces significant hurdles, according to Wintermute's head of policy, Ron Hammond. Hammond estimates the bill has a 30% chance of passing this year, citing the complex legislative process and uneven progress. Despite this, he notes that lawmakers are pushing to move the bill through committee, with some aiming for a vote as early as April 20. However, Hammond cautions that such timelines have been fluid for months.
The bill's passage is seen as crucial for institutional adoption of crypto, as it would provide clear rules on which digital assets are securities versus commodities and how they can be traded and regulated. The current fragmented framework has kept many large asset managers, banks, and pension funds on the sidelines due to legal and compliance risks. Hammond identifies traditional financial institutions, particularly banks, as the biggest obstacle, especially regarding the issue of whether stablecoins should offer yield. Negotiations have been stuck, with a recent proposed 'yield deal' failing to satisfy either side.
The dispute has derailed at least one compromise, and expectations for a new version are tempered. Hammond also notes that the resistance from banks is shaping the politics around the bill, particularly for Democrats, who are navigating a difficult balancing act.
Additional political headwinds could emerge in the coming months, potentially complicating Democratic support. Despite the challenges, Hammond believes the bill still has a viable, if narrow, path forward, with progress in committee and continued negotiations potentially keeping it alive into midyear.
For Wintermute, the stakes are high, as the firm is expanding its US footprint and growing its New York team. The outcome of the Clarity Act is consequential, and Hammond emphasizes that passage in 2026 will require breakthroughs that have so far proved elusive.