Ron Hammond, the head of policy at Wintermute, a prominent crypto market maker, has expressed cautious optimism about the prospects of the Crypto Clarity Act, estimating its chances of being passed this year at around 30%. This assessment comes amidst a complex legislative process and despite indications of progress in Washington.
Hammond pointed to the numerous challenges involved, including the uneven advancement of the legislative process and the aim to establish clear regulations for the crypto market structure in the U.S. The bill seeks to codify how the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission can oversee digital assets in the U.S.
Hammond's prediction aligns with other market signals, such as a recent Punchbowl survey that put the odds at 26%, and the prediction market Kalshi, which has seen odds hovering just above even. The uncertainty surrounding the bill's trajectory is underscored by the spread in these predictions. Hammond, who is set to speak at CoinDesk's Consensus Miami conference, acknowledges incremental progress, with lawmakers pushing for the bill to move through committee, possibly aiming for a vote as early as April 20. However, he notes that such timelines have been fluid for months.
The passage of the Crypto Clarity Act is seen as crucial for institutional adoption of crypto, as it would provide clear rules on which digital assets are considered securities versus commodities and define how they can be traded, custodied, and regulated in the U.S. Currently, the fragmented and uncertain framework has kept many large asset managers, banks, and pension funds on the sidelines due to legal and compliance risks. A comprehensive market structure law would reduce this ambiguity, giving institutions the confidence to increase their exposure to crypto, launch new products, and integrate crypto more fully into traditional financial systems.
However, significant hurdles remain, particularly from traditional financial institutions, especially regarding the issue of whether stablecoins should offer yield. According to Hammond, banks are the biggest obstacle, with negotiations stuck despite attempts from various sides to find a solution.
The dispute has already led to the failure of at least one proposed compromise, with a new version now being circulated but with tempered expectations. The resistance from banks is shaping the politics around the bill, particularly for Democrats, who are navigating a difficult balancing act, especially those who have accepted crypto industry funding. Additional political headwinds could emerge, including ongoing scrutiny around former President Donald Trump's crypto-related dealings, which could complicate Democratic support if it intensifies.
Despite these challenges, Hammond believes the bill still has a viable path forward, with progress in committee and continued negotiations potentially keeping it alive into midyear, when political incentives may shift. Wintermute, one of the largest crypto market makers globally, has a significant stake in the outcome, as it expands its U.S. footprint and grows its New York team, reflecting a broader industry commitment to the U.S. market under what is seen as a more favorable regulatory environment.
Hammond emphasized that while there is 'light at the end of the tunnel,' passage in 2026 will require breakthroughs that have so far proved elusive, hence his prediction of a 30% chance of the bill passing this year.