Ron Hammond, the head of policy at Wintermute, a prominent crypto market maker, has expressed cautious optimism about the prospects of the Crypto Clarity Act, estimating its chances of passage in 2026 at around 30%. Despite signs of progress, Hammond cites numerous challenges, including a complex legislative process and disagreements over key issues such as the regulation of stablecoins. The bill aims to establish clear rules for the oversight of digital assets in the US, which would have a significant impact on the crypto industry. Hammond's assessment is broadly in line with other predictions, including a recent survey by Punchbowl, which put the odds at 26%, and the prediction market Kalshi, which has been hovering around even odds.
The uncertainty surrounding the bill's trajectory is underscored by the fact that lawmakers are pushing to move it through committee, with some aiming for a vote as early as April 20, although Hammond notes that such timelines have been fluid for months. The passage of the Crypto Clarity Act is seen as crucial for institutional adoption of crypto, as it would provide clear guidelines on which digital assets are securities versus commodities and how they can be traded, custodied, and regulated in the US. The current fragmented and uncertain framework has kept many large asset managers, banks, and pension funds on the sidelines due to legal and compliance risks. A comprehensive market structure law would reduce this ambiguity, giving institutions the confidence to increase their exposure to crypto, launch new products, and integrate crypto more fully into traditional financial systems.
However, Hammond identifies traditional financial institutions, particularly banks, as a major obstacle, especially with regards to the issue of whether stablecoins should offer yield. Negotiations have been ongoing, but a solution has yet to be found, with a recent proposed 'yield deal' failing to satisfy either side. The dispute has already derailed at least one compromise, and expectations for a new version are tempered.
Hammond also notes that the resistance from banks is shaping the politics around the bill, particularly for Democrats, who are navigating a difficult balancing act due to their acceptance of crypto industry funding. Additional political headwinds could emerge in the coming months, including scrutiny around former President Donald Trump's crypto-related dealings, which could complicate Democratic support if it intensifies around June.
Despite these challenges, Hammond believes the bill still has a viable, albeit narrow, path forward, with progress in committee and continued negotiations potentially keeping it alive into mid-year, when political incentives may shift. For Wintermute, the stakes are high, as the firm is expanding its US footprint and growing its New York team, reflecting a broader industry commitment to the US market under what firms see as a more favorable regulatory environment. Hammond emphasizes that passage of the Crypto Clarity Act in 2026 will require breakthroughs that have so far proved elusive, and for now, his estimate of a 30% chance of passage remains, serving as a reminder that progress in Washington does not always translate into results.