The Crypto Clarity Act, aimed at establishing regulatory clarity for digital assets in the US, faces significant hurdles, according to Wintermute's head of policy, Ron Hammond. Despite momentum building in Washington, Hammond estimates the bill has only a 30% chance of passing this year, citing political friction and stalled negotiations. The act seeks to codify how the Securities and Exchange Commission and Commodity Futures Trading Commission oversee digital assets, but its progress has been uneven.
Hammond notes that lawmakers are pushing to move the bill through committee, with some aiming for a vote as early as April 20. However, he cautions that timelines have been fluid for months, and the bill's trajectory remains uncertain. The passage of the Clarity Act is seen as crucial for institutional adoption of crypto, as it would provide clear rules around which digital assets are securities versus commodities and define how they can be traded and regulated.
The current fragmented framework has kept many large asset managers, banks, and pension funds on the sidelines due to legal and compliance risks. Hammond identifies traditional financial institutions, particularly banks, as the biggest obstacle to the bill's passage, due to disputes over stablecoins offering yield. A recent report from the Council of Economic Advisers has pushed back on bank opposition, but negotiations remain stuck.
The dispute has already derailed at least one compromise, and expectations are tempered for a new version of the bill. Hammond notes that some Democrats who have accepted crypto industry funding are now navigating a difficult balancing act, and additional political headwinds could emerge in the coming months. Despite the challenges, Hammond believes the bill still has a viable path forward, with progress in committee and continued negotiations potentially keeping it alive into midyear.
Wintermute, one of the largest crypto market makers globally, is expanding its US footprint and growing its New York team, reflecting a broader industry commitment to the US market under a more favorable regulatory environment. The outcome of the Clarity Act is consequential for Wintermute, and Hammond emphasizes that passage in 2026 will require breakthroughs that have so far proved elusive.