Institutional Bitcoin Positions Lack Conviction Amid Upcoming Economic Releases

The recent 7% surge in bitcoin's price to $75,012.78 has not been accompanied by strong conviction, as the recovery has stalled near $72,000 ahead of key events, including the upcoming US inflation report and US-Iran talks. Institutions are adopting a cautious approach, purchasing call options to speculate on potential gains while also buying put options for downside protection. According to QCP Capital, there is demand for the $45 call expiring in May on BlackRock's spot bitcoin ETF, and the $80,000 call is the most popular bet on Deribit. However, the demand for puts persists, and options skew remains negative, indicating a bias towards put options. The US consumer price index for March is expected to show a significant increase in annualized inflation, led by rising energy prices, which could lead to market volatility if the core figure exceeds the estimated 2.7% annualized rate. The meeting between Iranian and US delegates in Pakistan could also impact financial market stability, and a positive outcome could accelerate bitcoin's rally. The ICE BofA US Bond Market Option Volatility Estimate Index, which reflects volatility in US Treasury futures, has dropped to 74% after spiking in March, indicating calmer conditions in the bond market, a positive sign for crypto bulls.