According to Ron Hammond, head of policy at Wintermute, a prominent crypto market maker, the Crypto Clarity bill has a 30% chance of being passed this year. Hammond's assessment is based on the current legislative landscape, which is marked by political friction, stalled negotiations, and uncertain timelines. Despite these challenges, Hammond notes that there are signs of progress, with lawmakers pushing to move the bill through committee and some aiming for a vote as early as April 20. However, he cautions that such timelines have been fluid for months and that there are hurdles along the way.
The Clarity Act aims to establish clear rules around crypto market structure regulation in the US, including how the Securities and Exchange Commission and Commodity Futures Trading Commission can oversee digital assets. Hammond believes that the passage of the Clarity Act is crucial for institutional adoption of crypto, as it would provide clear guidelines on which digital assets are securities versus commodities and how they can be traded, custodied, and regulated. The current fragmented and uncertain framework has kept many large asset managers, banks, and pension funds on the sidelines due to legal and compliance risks. Hammond identifies traditional financial institutions, particularly banks, as the biggest obstacle to the bill's passage, citing their opposition to stablecoins offering yield.
Negotiations between the banks, the White House, and the bill's drafters have been stuck, with a proposed 'yield deal' failing to satisfy either side. The dispute has significant implications for the politics around the bill, particularly for Democrats who have accepted crypto industry funding.
Hammond notes that some lawmakers are navigating a difficult balancing act, and that additional political headwinds could emerge in the coming months. Despite these challenges, Hammond believes that the bill still has a viable path forward, with progress in committee and continued negotiations potentially keeping it alive into midyear. Wintermute, which is expanding its US footprint and growing its New York team, has a significant stake in the outcome of the Clarity Act.
Hammond emphasizes that passage in 2026 will require breakthroughs that have so far proved elusive, and that for now, 30% remains his estimate of the bill's chances of passing.