Bitcoin Prices Eye $125,000 as Market Sentiment Shifts Amid US-Iran Peace Talks

Bitcoin was trading at approximately $74,700 during Asian morning hours on Friday, experiencing a minor 0.4% drop over 24 hours but still maintaining a 3.5% weekly gain, as the 10-day global equity rally paused ahead of the upcoming US-Iran ceasefire deadline. Ether saw a 1.4% decline to $2,327 but continued to lead the majors with a 6% weekly gain, extending its outperformance from earlier in the week. Other notable movements included XRP holding steady at $1.43 with a 6.4% weekly gain, solana increasing 2.7% to $87.67, BNB adding 0.7% to $629.89, and dogecoin rising 5.6% on the week to $0.0976. The MSCI All Country World Index reached a record high on Thursday before slipping 0.1% in Asia, while the S&P 500 also achieved an all-time high. Brent crude fell 1.2% to $98.20 following President Donald Trump's statement that prospects for a permanent Iran ceasefire were 'looking very good.' However, Trump's claims that Tehran had agreed to abandon its nuclear ambitions and reopen the Strait of Hormuz were not confirmed by Iran. A separate 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon was announced, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirming the truce. Markets are reacting to the headlines as if a deal is closer than it actually is, contributing to equities unwinding most of the war premium while crude remains near $98 and the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively shut. Beneath the stable bitcoin price action, some traders are focusing on the underlying setup. Bitcoin perpetual funding rates have turned deeply negative, reaching levels last seen in 2023, indicating that the market is heavily positioned against the price. According to Daniel Reis-Faria, CEO of ZeroStack, 'Funding rates this negative signify that the market is heavily short. If bitcoin continues to rise despite this, many of those positions could get liquidated, and the move can accelerate quickly.' Reis-Faria predicts that bitcoin could reach $125,000 in the next 30 to 60 days if the short base gets squeezed out. On-chain analyst CryptoVizArt offers a contrarian view, suggesting that bitcoin's 'True Market Mean,' which estimates the average cost basis of active investors, indicates that the average active holder is currently underwater. Historically, meaningful stretches below the True Market Mean have aligned with bitcoin's worst periods. Both scenarios can coexist, with a short squeeze from negative funding triggering an outsized rally that ultimately gets sold into by underwater holders. The dominant scenario likely depends on whether the US-Iran ceasefire extension holds past next week.