Bitcoin's Price Momentum Fades as Investors Await Tangible Progress

The recent surge in Bitcoin's price, driven by news of a US-Iran ceasefire, appears to be losing steam as investors seek concrete evidence of progress. Despite a brief spike above $76,000, the cryptocurrency has fallen back, repeating the choppy pattern seen on Tuesday. This follows a 10% increase, largely fueled by the ceasefire announcement from the previous week. However, with limited progress in restoring oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint accounting for 20% of global oil flows before the conflict began, markets are growing increasingly cautious. According to QCP Capital, one of the world's largest digital asset market makers, 'a ceasefire extension alone is no longer sufficient; markets require tangible progress, such as restored energy flows, reduced crude premia, and clearer disinflation.' As a result, traders should closely monitor oil prices, as signs of normalization are likely to emerge in energy markets first. The decline in Bitcoin and Ether's 30-day implied volatility indexes suggests traders expect significant progress soon. Meanwhile, Solana and DOGE may experience increased volatility due to rising demand for leveraged exposure, which can amplify price swings. In traditional markets, the MOVE index, which measures US Treasury note volatility, has declined to 65%, reversing the war-led spike to 115% in March, a bullish sign for risk assets. The stability in the US bond market, which underpins global finance, helps ease credit and financial conditions.