Institutional Bitcoin Positions Lack Conviction Amid Upcoming Economic Releases

Despite a 7% price surge since Sunday, bitcoin's recovery has stalled near $72,000 due to impending binary risks, including the US inflation report and US-Iran truce talks. Institutions are adopting a cautious stance, purchasing call options while also buying put options for downside protection. Demand for $80,000 calls has emerged, but the persistent demand for puts indicates a lingering bias for protection against declines. The upcoming US consumer price index is expected to show a significant increase in annualized inflation, led by rising energy prices. The meeting between Iranian and US delegates may also impact financial market stability, with a potential end to the war and normalization of oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz likely to accelerate bitcoin's rally. The ICE BofA US Bond Market Option Volatility Estimate Index has dropped to 74%, indicating calmness in the bond market and a positive signal for crypto bulls.