According to Ron Hammond, head of policy at Wintermute, a leading crypto market maker, the Crypto Clarity bill's chances of passing this year are around 30%, despite momentum building in Washington. Hammond pointed to the legislative process as advancing unevenly, with many moving parts.

The bill aims to establish regulations for crypto market structure in the U.S., including how the Securities and Exchange Commission and Commodity Futures Trading Commission oversee digital assets. Hammond's estimate aligns with other market signals, including a Punchbowl survey of lobbyists and staffers, which put the odds at 26%, and prediction market Kalshi, which has hovered just above even odds.

Despite uncertain trajectories, Hammond sees incremental progress, with lawmakers pushing to move the bill through committee, possibly as early as April 20. However, he cautioned that such timelines have been fluid for months. The passage of the Clarity Act is crucial for institutional adoption of crypto, as it would establish clear rules around digital assets and define how they can be traded and regulated. The current fragmented framework has kept many large asset managers, banks, and pension funds on the sidelines due to legal and compliance risks.

A comprehensive market structure law would reduce ambiguity, giving institutions confidence to scale exposure and integrate crypto into traditional financial systems. The main hurdle remains traditional financial institutions, particularly around the issue of whether stablecoins should offer yield. Negotiations have been stuck, with banks refusing to give way, despite attempts from various sides to find a solution. The dispute has already derailed one compromise, and expectations are tempered for a new version.

Hammond noted that some lawmakers who have accepted crypto industry funding are navigating a difficult balancing act, and additional political headwinds could emerge in the coming months. Despite the friction, Hammond believes the bill still has a viable path forward, with progress in committee and continued negotiations potentially keeping it alive into midyear. Wintermute, one of the largest crypto market makers globally, is expanding its U.S. footprint and growing its New York team, reflecting a broader industry commitment to the U.S.

market under a more favorable regulatory environment. The outcome of the Clarity Act is consequential for Wintermute, and Hammond emphasized that passage in 2026 will require breakthroughs that have so far proved elusive.