Bitcoin Encounters Resistance at Key Level, CryptoQuant Warns

Bitcoin's ascent towards $75,000 is being hindered by a surge in supply, even as institutional demand remains stable. The recent price increase has been driven primarily by macroeconomic flows rather than speculative activity. U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs have seen steady inflows, including a significant influx of approximately $240 million following geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. This demand has helped push BTC from around $71,000 to the mid-$70,000 range, despite traditional markets facing rising oil prices and shifting interest rate expectations. The pattern suggests allocation behavior rather than momentum-driven buying. However, as bitcoin's price rises, the market's dynamics are beginning to shift. On-chain data indicates that supply is increasing more aggressively as prices approach a key cost-basis level for short-term holders, around $76,800, which has historically acted as resistance. CryptoQuant notes that this level has capped previous rallies, including January's bounce, before prices reversed. The firm also reported a spike in bitcoin exchange inflows, reaching approximately 11,000 BTC per hour, and an increase in average deposit size, suggesting larger holders are driving the move. This sets up a two-sided market, with ETF flows and macro tailwinds providing demand, while large holders appear to be using the rally to reduce their exposure, feeding liquidity into the market as prices approach the breakeven zone. The outcome depends on whether new holders will hold onto their coins, and the market may struggle to sustain gains if supply builds.