Bitcoin Faces Resistance as Large Holders Prepare to Sell

The bitcoin rally to $75,000 is encountering significant supply pressure, even as institutional demand remains steady. The recent price increase has been driven primarily by macroeconomic factors rather than speculative activity. US-listed spot bitcoin ETFs have seen consistent inflows, including $240 million in a single session following Middle East geopolitical tensions, according to market maker Enflux. This buying activity helped lift bitcoin from around $71,000 to the mid-$70,000s, despite rising oil prices and shifting interest rate expectations in traditional markets. The pattern, Enflux noted, reflects allocation behavior rather than momentum-driven buying. However, as bitcoin's price rises, the market's character is changing. On-chain data suggests that supply is emerging more aggressively as prices approach a key cost basis level for short-term holders. The so-called realized price for recent buyers is around $76,800, which is the average entry point for traders who accumulated during the last phase of the drawdown, according to CryptoQuant. In weaker market regimes, this level has often acted as resistance, as investors who were previously underwater use rallies to exit at breakeven. Notably, the same level capped January's bounce almost to the dollar before prices reversed toward $60,000. CryptoQuant reported that bitcoin exchange inflows spiked to approximately 11,000 BTC per hour, the highest since late December, as prices tested the $75,000 to $76,000 range. At the same time, the average deposit size increased to about 2.25 BTC, the highest daily reading since mid-2024, indicating that larger holders are driving the move. The share of large transfers jumped from below 10% to above 40% of total inflows within days, a shift that the firm said has historically coincided with increased distribution pressure. This sets up a two-sided market. On one side, ETF flows and macro tailwinds continue to provide a steady source of demand. On the other side, large holders appear to be using the rally to reduce exposure, feeding liquidity into the market as prices approach a widely watched breakeven zone. The result is less a standoff than a handoff, with long-term holders distributing coins directly into ETF demand. The exchange inflows CryptoQuant flags and the ETF inflows Enflux tracks are, in effect, two sides of the same transaction, visible in different datasets. Whether this handoff clears depends on whether the new holders prove stickier than the ones exiting. This is a late-cycle pattern, and it resolves in one of two ways. The result is a market that can move higher quickly on inflows but struggles to sustain those gains once supply builds. A sustained break above the mid-$70,000s would likely require demand to absorb a growing wave of sell pressure. Failing that, the balance could tilt the other way, leaving bitcoin vulnerable to a pullback toward the low-$70,000s, where the latest leg of the rally began.