According to Ron Hammond, Wintermute's head of policy, the Crypto Clarity Act has a 30% chance of being passed this year, due to various challenges such as political friction, stalled negotiations, and uncertain timelines, despite some progress in Washington. Hammond notes that the legislative process is advancing unevenly and that there are many moving parts. The Clarity Act aims to establish clear rules for crypto market structure regulation in the US, including how the Securities and Exchange Commission and Commodity Futures Trading Commission can oversee digital assets.
Hammond's estimate is in line with other market signals, such as a recent Punchbowl survey of lobbyists and staffers, which put the odds at 26%, and prediction market Kalshi, which has been hovering just above even odds. Despite the uncertainty, Hammond sees some progress, with lawmakers pushing to move the bill through committee, with some aiming for a vote as early as April 20. However, he cautions that timelines have been fluid for months.
The passage of the Clarity Act is seen as crucial for institutional adoption of crypto, as it would establish clear rules around which digital assets are securities versus commodities, and define how they can be traded, custodied, and regulated in the US. The current fragmented and uncertain framework has kept many large asset managers, banks, and pension funds on the sidelines due to legal and compliance risks.
A comprehensive market structure law would reduce that ambiguity, giving institutions the confidence to scale exposure, launch new products, and integrate crypto more fully into traditional financial systems. However, traditional financial institutions, particularly banks, remain a major obstacle, especially regarding the issue of whether stablecoins should offer yield. Negotiations have been stuck, with a recent report from the Council of Economic Advisers pushing back on bank opposition.
Hammond notes that attempts to find a solution have been made, but banks refuse to give way. The dispute has already derailed at least one compromise, and expectations are tempered for a new version. The resistance from banks is shaping the politics around the bill, particularly for Democrats, who are navigating a difficult balancing act.
Some lawmakers who have accepted crypto industry funding are now facing pressure to take a stance on the issue. Additional political headwinds could emerge in the coming months, with ongoing scrutiny around former President Donald Trump's crypto-related dealings potentially complicating Democratic support. Despite the challenges, Hammond believes the bill still has a viable path forward, with progress in committee and continued negotiations potentially keeping it alive into midyear.
Wintermute, one of the largest crypto market makers globally, is expanding its US footprint and growing its New York team, reflecting a broader industry commitment to the US market under a more favorable regulatory environment. The outcome of the Clarity Act is consequential for Wintermute, and Hammond emphasizes that passage in 2026 will require breakthroughs that have so far proved elusive.