Bitcoin Encounters Resistance at Key Level, Sparking Selling Pressure

The surge in bitcoin's value towards $75,000 is facing a significant obstacle as supply increases, coinciding with steady institutional demand. The recent price increase has been fueled primarily by macroeconomic factors rather than speculative activity. US-based spot bitcoin ETFs have seen consistent investment this month, including a substantial $240 million influx following Middle East geopolitical tensions, as reported by market maker Enflux. This investment helped push BTC from around $71,000 to the mid-$70,000 range, despite traditional markets experiencing rising oil prices and shifting interest rate expectations. According to Enflux, this pattern reflects allocation behavior rather than chasing momentum. However, as bitcoin's price rises, the market's character is starting to shift. On-chain data suggests that supply is becoming more aggressive as prices approach a key cost-basis level for short-term holders. The so-called realized price for recent buyers, around $76,800, serves as the average entry point for traders who accumulated during the last phase of the downturn, according to CryptoQuant. In weaker market conditions, this level has often acted as resistance, as investors who were previously at a loss use rallies to exit at breakeven. Notably, the same level capped January's rebound almost to the dollar before prices reversed towards $60,000. CryptoQuant reported that bitcoin exchange inflows surged to approximately 11,000 BTC per hour, the highest since late December, as prices tested the $75,000 to $76,000 range. At the same time, the average deposit size increased to about 2.25 BTC, the highest daily reading since mid-2024, indicating that larger holders are driving the movement. The share of large transfers jumped from below 10% to above 40% of total inflows within days, a shift that the firm said has historically coincided with increased distribution pressure. This sets up a two-sided market. On one side, ETF flows and macro tailwinds continue to provide a steady source of demand. On the other side, large holders appear to be using the rally to reduce exposure, feeding liquidity into the market as prices approach a widely watched breakeven zone. The result is less a standoff than a transfer of ownership. Long-term holders seem to be distributing coins directly into ETF demand – the exchange inflows CryptoQuant flags and the ETF inflows Enflux tracks are, in effect, two sides of the same transaction, visible in different datasets. Whether this transfer is successful depends on whether the new holders prove to be more committed than those exiting. This is a late-cycle pattern, and it resolves in one of two ways. The outcome is a market that can move higher quickly on inflows but struggles to sustain those gains once supply builds. A sustained break above the mid-$70,000s would likely require demand to absorb a growing wave of sell pressure. Failing that, the balance could tilt the other way, CryptoQuant writes, leaving bitcoin vulnerable to a pullback towards the low-$70,000s, where the latest leg of the rally began.