A Simple Bitcoin Indicator Has Successfully Predicted Every Bear Market Bottom Since 2015, But Remains Inactive

Despite the daily price fluctuations, social media chatter, and macroeconomic headlines surrounding bitcoin, which is currently valued at $75,913.22, a remarkably straightforward indicator has quietly and accurately predicted every major market bottom since 2015. This indicator, which has not yet been triggered, implies that the broader bear market may not be over and that the recent price bounce to $75,000 from $65,000 could be a temporary reprieve. The indicator in question involves two simple moving averages on the price chart, representing bitcoin's average price over the past 50 and 100 weeks, which typically show near-term and long-term trends in bitcoin's price. When the 50-week average falls below the 100-week average, it is considered a bear market signal, and this crossover has occurred three times in bitcoin's history, each time coinciding with the end of a bear market and marking a major price bottom that has not been revisited since. These instances include April 2015, February 2019, and September 2022, where the crossover happened near the bottoming phase, but not precisely at the lowest point. Following each crossover, bitcoin experienced significant rallies, with returns far exceeding those of equities and other major asset classes. However, as of April 17, the crossover has not occurred, suggesting that the broader bear market may still be intact and could worsen before finding a bottom, making the recent bounce toward $75,000 likely a temporary recovery rather than the start of a full-fledged bull market. While historical patterns do not guarantee future outcomes, they can provide valuable insights, and if U.S. equities continue to advance, institutional demand for Bitcoin ETFs could strengthen, potentially supporting a price rally.