The bitcoin price, currently at $75,903.62, has seen a 7% increase since Sunday, but the recovery has stalled near $72,000 due to looming binary risks, including the upcoming US inflation report and US-Iran truce talks. Institutions are adopting a cautious stance, as evident in the options market, where they are buying call options to bet on potential gains while also purchasing put options for downside protection. According to QCP Capital, there is demand for the $45 call expiring in May for BlackRock's spot bitcoin ETF, indicating an expected price rise above the current $40.
Similarly, bitcoin options on Deribit have seen significant demand for the $80,000 call. However, the persistent demand for puts, which offer protection against declines, is also notable, as reflected in the negative options skew across all time frames. The US consumer price index for March is expected to show a significant increase in annualized inflation, primarily driven by rising energy prices. This could lead to market volatility, particularly if the core figure exceeds the estimated 2.7% annualized rate, potentially leading to further Fed rate increases and weighing on risk assets like BTC.
The upcoming meeting between Iranian and US delegates in Pakistan may also impact financial market stability, with a potential end to the war and normalization of oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz likely to accelerate BTC's rally. The ICE BofA US Bond Market Option Volatility Estimate Index, which reflects volatility in US Treasury futures, has shown a decrease in turbulence, indicating calmness in the global finance and collateral and credit creation, a positive signal for crypto bulls.