The head of policy at Wintermute, a leading crypto market maker, has expressed cautious optimism about the prospects of the Crypto Clarity Act, estimating its chances of passage in 2026 at around 30%. Despite signs of progress, Hammond cites numerous challenges, including political friction, uneven legislative progress, and unresolved issues surrounding the regulation of digital assets. The bill aims to establish clear guidelines for crypto market structure regulation in the US, including the oversight of digital assets by the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Hammond's assessment is broadly in line with other market signals, with a recent survey of lobbyists and staffers putting the odds at 26%, and prediction market Kalshi hovering around even odds.
While lawmakers are pushing to move the bill through committee, with some targeting a vote as early as April 20, Hammond notes that timelines have been fluid for months. The passage of the Crypto Clarity Act is seen as crucial for institutional adoption of crypto, as it would provide clear rules on which digital assets are securities versus commodities, and define how they can be traded, custodied, and regulated in the US. However, traditional financial institutions, particularly banks, remain a significant obstacle, with disputes over stablecoins and yield being a major sticking point.
Hammond believes that despite the challenges, the bill still has a narrow path forward, with progress in committee and continued negotiations potentially keeping it alive into mid-year. Wintermute, which is expanding its US operations, has a significant stake in the outcome, and Hammond emphasizes that passage in 2026 will require breakthroughs that have so far proved elusive.