A New Strategy for Bitcoin: Waiting for a Quantum Attack to Unfold

The Bitcoin community is considering a drastic shift in its approach to potential quantum computing threats. Instead of proactively freezing vulnerable coins, the new proposal suggests waiting for an attacker to prove their capabilities. However, this plan assumes the attacker will claim a bounty rather than maximizing their gains through illicit means. The proposed 'canary' system involves placing a small amount of bitcoin in a special address that can only be accessed by a quantum-capable attacker. If the address is compromised, it will serve as public proof of the threat and automatically trigger a network-wide freeze of older wallets. This approach is designed to replace the controversial BIP-361 proposal, which would impose restrictions on a fixed timeline, potentially resulting in the permanent freezing of unmigrated coins. Critics argue that BIP-361 undermines Bitcoin's core principle of private key holder control. The new proposal introduces a financial incentive, allowing users to contribute to a bounty that rewards the first entity to demonstrate a quantum attack publicly. Additionally, it includes a 'safety window' to make stealth attacks more difficult, during which vulnerable coins can still be moved, but the recipient will be unable to spend them for an extended period. The success of this plan relies on the assumption that the first entity capable of breaking Bitcoin will claim the bounty rather than executing a large-scale theft. This assumption goes against Bitcoin's historical design, which prioritizes preventing worst-case scenarios. If this bet fails, Bitcoin may face the worst of both worlds: the catastrophe it aimed to prevent and the realization that a fixed-timeline defense could have stopped it.