According to Ron Hammond, head of policy at Wintermute, a prominent crypto market maker, the chances of the Crypto Clarity Act passing in 2026 are around 30%. Hammond's cautious outlook stems from the complex legislative process, uneven progress, and shifting timelines, despite signs of momentum in Washington. The Clarity Act aims to establish clear rules for crypto market structure regulation in the U.S., including oversight of digital assets by the Securities and Exchange Commission and Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Hammond's estimate is in line with other market signals, such as a recent Punchbowl survey and prediction market Kalshi. Despite the uncertainty, Hammond sees incremental progress, with lawmakers pushing to move the bill through committee, potentially as early as April 20. However, he notes that timelines have been fluid for months.
The passage of the Clarity Act is crucial for institutional adoption of crypto, as it would provide clear rules on which digital assets are securities versus commodities and define how they can be traded and regulated. The current fragmented framework has kept many large asset managers, banks, and pension funds on the sidelines due to legal and compliance risks. A comprehensive market structure law would reduce ambiguity, giving institutions the confidence to increase their exposure to crypto. The main obstacle to the bill's passage is the opposition from traditional financial institutions, particularly regarding the issue of whether stablecoins should offer yield.
Negotiations have been stuck, with attempts from various sides to find a solution, but banks have refused to compromise. The dispute has already derailed one proposed compromise, and expectations for a new version are tempered.
The politics around the bill are also complex, with Democrats facing a difficult balancing act due to their acceptance of crypto industry funding. Additional political headwinds may emerge in the coming months, potentially complicating Democratic support. Despite the challenges, Hammond believes the bill still has a viable path forward, with progress in committee and continued negotiations potentially keeping it alive into mid-year. Wintermute, one of the largest crypto market makers globally, has a significant stake in the outcome, as it expands its U.S.
footprint and grows its New York team. The firm's commitment to the U.S. market reflects a broader industry commitment to the region, particularly under a more favorable regulatory environment.