Bitcoin Faces Resistance at Key Level as Large Holders Prepare to Sell

The bitcoin rally to $75,000 is encountering significant supply pressure, even as institutional demand remains stable. The recent price increase has been driven primarily by macroeconomic flows rather than speculative activity, with US-listed spot bitcoin ETFs attracting steady inflows, including a $240 million injection following Middle East geopolitical tensions. This demand helped lift bitcoin from $71,000 to the mid-$70,000s, despite rising oil prices and shifting interest rate expectations in traditional markets. However, as bitcoin approaches $76,800, a key cost-basis level for short-term holders, supply is beginning to emerge more aggressively. On-chain data from CryptoQuant suggests that this level, which represents the average entry point for recent buyers, has historically acted as resistance, with investors using rallies to exit at breakeven. Notably, this same level capped the January bounce before prices reversed toward $60,000. CryptoQuant also reported a spike in bitcoin exchange inflows to approximately 11,000 BTC per hour, the highest since late December, as prices tested the $75,000 to $76,000 range. The average deposit size increased to about 2.25 BTC, the highest daily reading since mid-2024, indicating that larger holders are driving the move. This sets up a two-sided market, with ETF flows and macro tailwinds providing steady demand, while large holders appear to be reducing exposure, feeding liquidity into the market as prices approach the widely watched breakeven zone. The result is a market that can move higher quickly on inflows but struggles to sustain those gains once supply builds. A sustained break above the mid-$70,000s would likely require demand to absorb a growing wave of sell pressure.