Bitcoin Faces Resistance at Key Level as Large Holders Prepare to Sell

The recent surge in bitcoin's price towards $75,000 is encountering significant resistance due to a substantial increase in supply, even as institutional demand remains steady. The primary driver of this upward trend has been macro flows rather than speculative activity, with U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs experiencing consistent inflows, including a notable $240 million influx following Middle East geopolitical tensions. However, as bitcoin's price rises, the market dynamics are shifting. On-chain data from CryptoQuant suggests that supply is becoming more aggressive as prices approach a critical cost-basis level for short-term holders, around $76,800, which has historically acted as resistance. This level has previously capped price rallies, including in January, before prices reversed. CryptoQuant observed a significant spike in bitcoin exchange inflows to approximately 11,000 BTC per hour as prices tested the $75,000 to $76,000 range, with larger holders driving this move. The average deposit size increased to about 2.25 BTC, the highest daily reading since mid-2024, indicating larger holders are behind the movement. This sets up a two-sided market, with ETF flows and macro tailwinds providing steady demand on one side, while large holders appear to be reducing their exposure as prices approach the breakeven zone on the other. The result is a market that can quickly move higher on inflows but struggles to sustain gains as supply builds. A sustained break above the mid-$70,000s would require demand to absorb the growing sell pressure, or else the balance could shift, leaving bitcoin vulnerable to a pullback.