Bitcoin Encounters Resistance at Key Level, According to CryptoQuant

The upward momentum of bitcoin towards $75,000 is being hindered by a significant supply wall, even as institutional demand remains stable. The recent price increase has been primarily driven by macroeconomic factors rather than widespread speculative activity. U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs have seen consistent inflows, including a substantial $240 million in a single session following Middle East geopolitical tensions, as reported by market maker Enflux. This buying activity has helped propel BTC from around $71,000 to the mid-$70,000 range, despite traditional markets experiencing rising oil prices and shifting interest rate expectations. According to Enflux, this pattern reflects allocation behavior rather than momentum-driven investing. However, as bitcoin continues to rise, the market dynamics are beginning to shift. On-chain data suggests that supply is becoming more aggressive as prices approach a key cost-basis level for short-term holders, around $76,800, which represents the average entry point for traders who accumulated during the last phase of the drawdown, as per CryptoQuant. In weaker market regimes, this level has often acted as resistance, as investors who were previously underwater use rallies to exit at breakeven. Notably, the same level capped the January bounce almost to the dollar before prices reversed towards $60,000. CryptoQuant noted that bitcoin exchange inflows surged to approximately 11,000 BTC per hour, the highest since late December, as prices tested the $75,000 to $76,000 range. At the same time, the average deposit size increased to about 2.25 BTC, the highest daily reading since mid-2024, indicating that larger holders are driving the move. The share of large transfers jumped from below 10% to above 40% of total inflows within days, a shift that the firm said has historically coincided with increased distribution pressure. This sets up a two-sided market. On one side, ETF flows and macro tailwinds continue to provide a steady source of demand. On the other, large holders appear to be using the rally to reduce exposure, feeding liquidity into the market as prices approach a widely watched breakeven zone. What emerges is less a standoff than a transfer of ownership. Long-term holders appear to be distributing coins directly into ETF demand — the exchange inflows CryptoQuant flags and the ETF inflows Enflux tracks are, in effect, two sides of the same transaction, visible in different datasets. Whether this transfer clears depends on whether the new holders prove stickier than the ones exiting. That is a late-cycle pattern, and it resolves in one of two ways. The result is a market that can move higher quickly on inflows, but struggles to sustain those gains once supply builds. A sustained break above the mid-$70,000s would likely require demand to absorb a growing wave of sell pressure. Failing that, the balance could tilt the other way, CryptoQuant writes, leaving bitcoin vulnerable to a pullback towards the low-$70,000s, where the latest leg of the rally began.