The head of policy at Wintermute, a major crypto market maker, has expressed a cautious outlook on the Crypto Clarity Act, estimating its chances of passage this year at around 30%, despite signs of momentum in Washington. Hammond cited the complex legislative process, with multiple moving parts, as a key factor in his assessment. The Clarity Act aims to establish clear rules for crypto market structure regulation in the US, including the oversight of digital assets by the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Hammond's estimate is in line with other market signals, including a recent Punchbowl survey and prediction market Kalshi.
Despite the uncertainty, Hammond sees incremental progress, with lawmakers pushing to move the bill through committee, possibly as early as April 20. However, he cautioned that timelines have been fluid for months.
The passage of the Clarity Act is widely seen as crucial for institutional adoption of crypto, as it would provide clear rules on which digital assets are securities versus commodities and how they can be traded and regulated. The current fragmented framework has kept many large asset managers, banks, and pension funds on the sidelines due to legal and compliance risks. A comprehensive market structure law would reduce ambiguity, giving institutions the confidence to scale their exposure to crypto.
However, hurdles remain, particularly around the issue of whether stablecoins should offer yield, with traditional financial institutions being the biggest obstacle. According to Hammond, negotiations have been stuck, with banks refusing to give way, despite attempts by various parties to find a solution. The dispute has already derailed at least one compromise, and expectations are tempered for a new version of the bill. The resistance from banks is shaping the politics around the bill, particularly for Democrats, who are navigating a difficult balancing act.
Hammond noted that some lawmakers who have accepted crypto industry funding are now facing pressure to take a stance on the issue. Additional political headwinds could emerge in the coming months, particularly around former President Donald Trump's crypto-related dealings. Despite the friction, Hammond believes the bill still has a viable path forward, with progress in committee and continued negotiations potentially keeping it alive into midyear. Wintermute, one of the largest crypto market makers globally, has a significant stake in the outcome, with the firm expanding its US footprint and growing its New York team.
The outcome of the Clarity Act is all the more consequential, with Hammond emphasizing that passage in 2026 will require breakthroughs that have so far proved elusive.