Optimistic Bitcoin Investors Set Sights on $125,000 Amid US-Iran Peace Talks

Bitcoin was trading at around $74,700 during Asian morning hours on Friday, experiencing a slight 0.4% decrease over 24 hours but maintaining a 3.5% weekly gain, as the 10-day global equities rally paused ahead of the upcoming US-Iran ceasefire deadline. Meanwhile, Ether saw a 1.4% decline to $2,327 but continued to lead the majors with a 6% weekly gain, while extending its outperformance that began earlier in the week. Other notable movements included XRP holding at $1.43 with a 6.4% weekly gain, Solana increasing by 2.7% to $87.67, BNB rising 0.7% to $629.89, and Dogecoin seeing a 5.6% weekly increase to $0.0976. The MSCI All Country World Index reached a record high on Thursday before slipping 0.1% in Asia, while the S&P 500 also achieved an all-time high. However, Brent crude fell 1.2% to $98.20 following President Donald Trump's statement that a permanent Iran ceasefire was 'looking very good.' Despite the lack of confirmation from Iran regarding the alleged concessions, markets are reacting as if a deal is imminent, leading to the unwinding of most war premiums in equities, although crude remains near $98 and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. A recently announced 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon has also contributed to the shifting market landscape. Beneath the stagnant bitcoin price action, some traders are focusing on the underlying setup. Bitcoin's perpetual funding rates have turned deeply negative, reaching levels last seen in 2023, indicating that the market is heavily positioned against the price. According to Daniel Reis-Faria, CEO of ZeroStack, 'Funding rates this negative signify that the market is heavily short. If bitcoin continues to rise despite this, many of those positions could get liquidated, and the move can accelerate quickly.' Reis-Faria predicts that bitcoin could reach $125,000 in the next 30 to 60 days if the short base gets squeezed out. However, on-chain analyst CryptoVizArt offers a contrarian view, suggesting that bitcoin's 'True Market Mean' – a metric estimating the average cost basis of active investors – indicates that the average active holder is currently underwater. Historically, extended periods below the True Market Mean have coincided with bitcoin's most challenging periods, including the 2018-19 bear market and the 2022-23 decline following the Luna and FTX collapses. These two perspectives do not necessarily conflict, as a short squeeze triggered by negative funding and a structural drawdown from underwater holders can both occur, with the former potentially leading to an outsized rally that is eventually sold into by the latter. The dominant scenario will likely depend on whether the US-Iran ceasefire extension holds beyond next week.