Bitcoin's Gains from Ceasefire News Are Losing Momentum as Investors Seek Tangible Progress

The recent surge in Bitcoin's price, driven by the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, is beginning to lose steam as investors await concrete evidence of progress. Despite briefly reaching $76,000, the cryptocurrency has fallen back, mirroring the choppy pattern seen on Tuesday. This stall follows a 10% increase primarily fueled by the ceasefire announcement from the previous week. However, optimism remains, with President Donald Trump suggesting the conflict is nearing its end, yet progress in restoring oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz remains limited. QCP Capital notes that a ceasefire extension alone is insufficient; markets require tangible progress such as restored energy flows and clearer disinflation. Traders should monitor oil prices closely, as signs of normalization are likely to appear in energy markets first. The decline in Bitcoin and Ether's 30-day implied volatility indexes suggests traders expect significant progress soon. Meanwhile, Solana and DOGE may experience increased volatility due to rising demand for leveraged exposure. Alex Kuptsikevich, FxPro's chief market analyst, believes Solana's attempt to bounce off an important long-term support line is significant, but a consolidation above $105 is necessary to declare a victory for the bulls. The MOVE index, measuring U.S. Treasury note volatility, has declined to 65%, reversing the war-led spike to 115% in March, which is bullish for risk assets. The chart of Bitcoin's hourly price action since March 31 shows a steady upward trajectory but with a developing double-top pattern, indicating potential exhaustion in bullish momentum. If the price dips below $73,300, the double-top pattern would be confirmed, suggesting a deeper decline to $70,000. Conversely, a sustained move above $76,000 could strengthen the case for a rally to $88,000.