Wintermute's head of policy, Ron Hammond, has expressed cautious optimism about the prospects of the Crypto Clarity Act, estimating a 30% chance of passage this year. Despite signs of progress, Hammond cites numerous challenges, including political friction, uneven legislative progress, and unresolved issues surrounding the regulation of digital assets. The Clarity Act aims to establish clear guidelines for the oversight of crypto market structure in the US, including the roles of the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Hammond's assessment is broadly in line with other market signals, with a recent Punchbowl survey of lobbyists and staffers putting the odds at 26%, and prediction market Kalshi hovering around even odds. While Hammond sees incremental progress, with lawmakers pushing to move the bill through committee, he cautions that timelines have been fluid for months. The passage of the Clarity Act is widely regarded as a crucial factor in institutional adoption of crypto, as it would provide clear rules on which digital assets are securities versus commodities and define how they can be traded, custodied, and regulated in the US.
However, the current fragmented and uncertain framework has kept many large asset managers, banks, and pension funds on the sidelines due to legal and compliance risks. A comprehensive market structure law would reduce ambiguity, giving institutions the confidence to scale exposure, launch new products, and integrate crypto more fully into traditional financial systems. Nevertheless, significant hurdles remain, particularly around the issue of whether stablecoins should offer yield, with traditional financial institutions being the biggest obstacle. According to Hammond, attempts to find a solution have been met with resistance from banks, and negotiations remain stuck.
The dispute has already derailed at least one compromise, and expectations for a new version are tempered. The politics surrounding the bill are also complex, with Democrats facing a difficult balancing act due to unresolved concerns around decentralized finance and anti-money laundering compliance. Additional political headwinds could emerge in the coming months, potentially complicating Democratic support.
Despite the challenges, Hammond believes the bill still has a viable path forward, with progress in committee and continued negotiations potentially keeping it alive into midyear. Wintermute, one of the largest crypto market makers globally, has a significant stake in the outcome, having expanded its US footprint and grown its New York team.
The firm's commitment to the US market reflects a broader industry commitment to the region, particularly under a more favorable regulatory environment. Ultimately, the passage of the Clarity Act in 2026 will require breakthroughs that have so far proved elusive, with Hammond's 30% estimate serving as a reminder that progress in Washington does not always translate into results.