The Crypto Clarity Act, a bill aimed at establishing clear regulations for the US crypto market, has a 30% chance of passing this year, according to Wintermute's head of policy, Ron Hammond. Hammond's estimate is based on the current legislative process, which is advancing unevenly, and the ongoing political friction surrounding the bill. The Act seeks to create rules around crypto market structure regulation in the US, including the oversight of digital assets by the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Despite the challenges, Hammond sees incremental progress, with lawmakers pushing to move the bill through committee, and some aiming for a vote as early as April 20.
However, he cautions that timelines have been fluid for months. The passage of the Clarity Act is seen as crucial for institutional adoption of crypto, as it would establish clear rules around which digital assets are securities versus commodities, and define how they can be traded, custodied, and regulated in the US. The current fragmented and uncertain framework has kept many large asset managers, banks, and pension funds on the sidelines due to legal and compliance risks.
Hammond believes that traditional financial institutions, particularly banks, remain the biggest obstacle to the bill's passage, especially regarding the issue of whether stablecoins should offer yield. Negotiations between the banks and other stakeholders have been stuck, with a recent proposed 'yield deal' failing to satisfy either side.
The dispute has already derailed at least one compromise, and expectations are tempered for a new version of the bill. Hammond also notes that the politics around the bill are complex, particularly for Democrats, who are navigating a difficult balancing act due to their acceptance of crypto industry funding.
Additional political headwinds could emerge in the coming months, potentially complicating Democratic support for the bill. Despite the challenges, Hammond believes the bill still has a viable path forward, with progress in committee and continued negotiations potentially keeping it alive into midyear.
Wintermute, one of the largest crypto market makers globally, has a significant stake in the outcome of the Clarity Act, as it expands its US footprint and grows its New York team. The firm sees a more favorable regulatory environment in the US and is committed to the market.
Hammond emphasizes that passage of the bill in 2026 will require breakthroughs that have so far proved elusive, and for now, he maintains his estimate of a 30% chance of passage.