According to Ron Hammond, head of policy at Wintermute, a prominent crypto market maker, the Crypto Clarity bill has a cautious 30% chance of being passed this year. Hammond pointed to the legislative process as a significant factor, noting that while momentum is building in Washington, progress is uneven. The Clarity Act aims to establish clear guidelines for crypto market structure regulation in the U.S., including the roles of the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in overseeing digital assets.
Hammond's assessment is in line with other market signals, such as a recent Punchbowl survey that put the odds at 26%, and the prediction market Kalshi, which has been hovering around even odds. Despite the uncertainty surrounding the bill's trajectory, Hammond sees incremental progress, with lawmakers pushing to move the bill through committee and some aiming for a vote as early as April 20. However, he cautioned that these timelines have been fluid for months.
The passage of the Clarity Act is widely regarded as a crucial step for institutional adoption of crypto, as it would provide clear rules for distinguishing between securities and commodities, and define how digital assets can be traded, custodied, and regulated in the U.S. The current fragmented framework has kept many large asset managers, banks, and pension funds on the sidelines due to legal and compliance risks. A comprehensive market structure law would reduce this ambiguity, giving institutions the confidence to increase their exposure to crypto, launch new products, and integrate crypto more fully into traditional financial systems. Hammond identified traditional financial institutions, particularly banks, as a significant obstacle to the bill's passage, citing their opposition to stablecoins offering yield.
Negotiations have been stuck, with a recent report from the Council of Economic Advisers pushing back on bank opposition. The dispute has already derailed at least one compromise, and expectations for a new version are tempered. Hammond noted that the resistance from banks is shaping the politics around the bill, particularly for Democrats, who are navigating a difficult balancing act due to unresolved concerns around decentralized finance and anti-money laundering compliance.
Additional political headwinds could emerge in the coming months, with Hammond flagging ongoing scrutiny around former President Donald Trump's crypto-related dealings as a potential flashpoint. Despite the challenges, Hammond believes the bill still has a viable path forward, with progress in committee and continued negotiations potentially keeping it alive into midyear.
Wintermute, one of the largest crypto market makers globally, has a significant stake in the outcome, with the firm expanding its U.S. footprint and growing its New York team. Hammond emphasized that the outcome of the Clarity Act is consequential for the industry, and while he sees 'light at the end of the tunnel,' passage in 2026 will require breakthroughs that have so far proved elusive.