Bitcoin Price Lacks Conviction Among Institutions Ahead of Key Economic Reports

Despite a 7% rally in bitcoin's price since Sunday, conviction remains weak due to key binary risks, including the upcoming US inflation report and US-Iran truce talks. Institutions are pursuing upside potential through call options while also purchasing downside protection. Demand for $80,000 call options has emerged, but the demand for puts, which provide protection against declines, persists. The US consumer price index for March is expected to show a significant increase in annualized inflation, potentially leading to market volatility. The outcome of the US-Iran talks may also impact financial market stability and bitcoin's price. The ICE BofA US Bond Market Option Volatility Estimate Index has dropped to 74% after spiking in March, indicating calmer conditions in the bond market, which could be a positive signal for crypto bulls.