Bitcoin Funding Rates Plummet to 2023 Lows, Hinting at a Market Bottom

The funding rates for Bitcoin have dropped to their lowest levels since 2023, a trend that has historically signaled a market bottom. As bitcoin continues to push past $75,000, the seven-day moving average of funding rates has fallen to around -0.005%, according to data from Glassnode. Funding rates represent the periodic payments made between long and short traders in perpetual futures contracts, aiming to keep prices aligned with the spot market. A positive rate indicates that long traders pay short traders, reflecting a bullish stance, while a negative rate suggests that shorts pay longs, pointing to a market biased towards downside bets. Despite the prolonged period of negative funding rates in March and April, bitcoin has continued to climb, rising from the low to mid $60,000s to around $75,000. Historically, deeply negative funding rates have often aligned with local price bottoms, typically reflecting crowded short positioning that can lead to a squeeze higher as bearish bets are unwound. This pattern has been observed across multiple market cycles, including the COVID-19 induced market crash in March 2020, China's mining ban in mid 2021, the FTX collapse in November 2022, and the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in 2023. More recent episodes, such as the yen carry trade unwind in August 2024 and the April 2025 'Liberation Day' selloff, have also seen negative funding rates coincide with local lows. The persistence of negative funding rates suggests that bearish positioning remains high, even as prices trend higher, potentially indicating that the market is experiencing a 'wall of worry' with short positioning acting as fuel for further upside.