Ron Hammond, Wintermute's head of policy, has expressed cautious optimism regarding the Crypto Clarity Act, estimating its chances of passage this year at around 30%, despite signs of progress in Washington. Hammond pointed to the complex legislative process, with multiple factors at play, as the reason for his cautious outlook. The Clarity Act aims to establish clear regulations for the crypto market in the US, including the oversight of digital assets by the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Hammond's estimate is in line with other market signals, including a recent Punchbowl survey of lobbyists and staffers, which put the odds at 26%, and the prediction market Kalshi, which has been hovering around even odds. Despite the uncertainty, Hammond sees incremental progress, with lawmakers pushing to move the bill through committee, possibly as early as April 20. However, he cautioned that timelines have been fluid for months. The passage of the Clarity Act is seen as crucial for institutional adoption of crypto, as it would provide clear rules for digital assets and reduce ambiguity, allowing institutions to scale their exposure and integrate crypto into traditional financial systems.
Hammond identified traditional financial institutions, particularly banks, as a major obstacle, citing their opposition to stablecoins offering yield. Negotiations have been ongoing, but a solution has yet to be found.
The dispute has already derailed one compromise, and expectations for a new version are tempered. Hammond also noted that the politics around the bill are complex, particularly for Democrats, who are navigating a difficult balancing act due to their acceptance of crypto industry funding.
Additional political headwinds may emerge in the coming months, which could complicate Democratic support. Despite the challenges, Hammond believes the bill still has a viable path forward, with progress in committee and continued negotiations potentially keeping it alive into midyear. Wintermute, one of the largest crypto market makers globally, has a significant stake in the outcome, as it expands its US footprint and grows its New York team. Hammond emphasized that the outcome of the Clarity Act is consequential, and passage in 2026 will require breakthroughs that have so far proved elusive.