A Simple Bitcoin Indicator Has Successfully Signaled Every Bear Market Bottom Since 2015, But Remains Inactive

Beyond the daily price fluctuations, social media chatter, and macroeconomic headlines, a remarkably straightforward indicator has consistently signaled every major bitcoin market bottom since 2015. This indicator, which has not yet been triggered, implies that the broader bear market may not be over and the recent price bounce may be temporary. The indicator in question involves two simple moving averages on the price chart, representing bitcoin's average price over the past 50 and 100 weeks. When the 50-week average falls below the 100-week average, it is known as a bear market signal, which has occurred three times in bitcoin's history, coinciding with the end of bear markets and marking significant price bottoms. These instances include April 2015, February 2019, and September 2022, each followed by substantial bull runs that outperformed other major asset classes. As of the current date, the crossover has not occurred, suggesting that the bear market may still be intact and could worsen before reaching a bottom, making the recent price recovery likely temporary.