According to Ron Hammond, head of policy at Wintermute, a prominent crypto market maker, the Crypto Clarity Act's chances of being passed this year are approximately 30%. Hammond's cautious outlook is attributed to the legislative process being uneven and facing numerous challenges. The Clarity Act aims to establish clear regulations for the crypto market structure in the US, including the oversight of digital assets by the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Hammond's estimate is in line with other market signals, such as a recent Punchbowl survey, which put the odds at 26%, and the prediction market Kalshi, which has been hovering around even odds.
Despite the uncertainty surrounding the bill's trajectory, Hammond sees incremental progress, with lawmakers pushing to move the bill through committee. However, he cautions that timelines have been fluid for months.
The passage of the Clarity Act is widely regarded as crucial for institutional adoption of crypto, as it would provide clear rules for distinguishing between securities and commodities and define how they can be traded, custodied, and regulated in the US. The current fragmented framework has kept many large asset managers, banks, and pension funds on the sidelines due to legal and compliance risks. A comprehensive market structure law would reduce this ambiguity, giving institutions the confidence to increase their exposure to crypto, launch new products, and integrate it more fully into traditional financial systems.
Hammond identifies traditional financial institutions, particularly banks, as the biggest obstacle to the bill's passage, citing their opposition to stablecoins offering yield. The dispute has already derailed at least one compromise, and negotiations remain stuck.
The resistance from banks is shaping the politics around the bill, particularly for Democrats, who are navigating a difficult balancing act. Hammond notes that some lawmakers who have accepted crypto industry funding are now facing a challenging situation. Additional political headwinds could emerge in the coming months, with Hammond flagging ongoing scrutiny around former President Donald Trump's crypto-related dealings as a potential flashpoint. Despite the friction, Hammond believes the bill still has a viable path forward, with progress in committee and continued negotiations potentially keeping it alive into midyear.
Wintermute, one of the largest crypto market makers globally, has expanded its US footprint and is growing its New York team, reflecting a broader industry commitment to the US market under a more favorable regulatory environment. The outcome of the Clarity Act is highly consequential for Wintermute, and Hammond emphasizes that passage in 2026 will require breakthroughs that have so far proved elusive.