According to Ron Hammond, head of policy at Wintermute, a prominent crypto market maker, the chances of the Crypto Clarity Act passing this year are around 30%, due to various obstacles, including political friction and shifting timelines. The Act aims to establish clear rules for crypto market structure regulation in the US, defining the oversight roles of the Securities and Exchange Commission and Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Hammond's estimate aligns with other market signals, such as a recent Punchbowl survey and prediction market Kalshi.
Despite the uncertainty, Hammond sees incremental progress, with lawmakers pushing to move the bill through committee, potentially as early as April 20. However, he cautions that such timelines have been fluid for months.
The passage of the Clarity Act is crucial for institutional adoption of crypto, as it would provide clear rules for digital assets and reduce ambiguity, allowing institutions to scale their exposure and integrate crypto into traditional financial systems. Nevertheless, traditional financial institutions, particularly banks, remain a significant obstacle, especially regarding the issue of stablecoins offering yield. Hammond notes that negotiations have been stuck, and a proposed 'yield deal' failed to satisfy either side. The dispute has already derailed at least one compromise, and expectations for a new version are tempered.
The politics around the bill are also complex, with Democrats facing a difficult balancing act due to crypto industry funding and unresolved concerns around decentralized finance and anti-money laundering compliance. Additional political headwinds may emerge in the coming months, potentially complicating Democratic support. Despite the challenges, Hammond believes the bill still has a viable path forward, with progress in committee and continued negotiations potentially keeping it alive into midyear. Wintermute, one of the largest crypto market makers globally, has a significant stake in the outcome, as it expands its US footprint and grows its New York team.
Hammond emphasizes that passage in 2026 will require breakthroughs that have so far proved elusive, and for now, his estimate of a 30% chance of passing remains.