Lack of Conviction in Institutions' Bitcoin Positioning May Be Altered by Upcoming CPI and Iran Talks

The price of bitcoin has seen a nearly 7% increase since Sunday, but its recovery has stalled near $72,000 due to key binary risks, including the upcoming US inflation report and US-Iran truce talks. Institutions are adopting a cautious approach, as seen in the options market where they are purchasing calls while also seeking downside protection. According to QCP Capital, there is a demand for the $45 call expiring in May for BlackRock's spot bitcoin ETF, indicating an expected price rise above the current $40. Similar trends are observed in bitcoin options on Deribit, with the $80,000 call being the most popular bet, yet demand for puts persists. The US consumer price index for March is expected to show a significant increase in annualized inflation, primarily driven by rising energy prices. This may lead to market volatility, especially if the core figure exceeds the estimated 2.7% annualized rate. The meeting between Iranian and US delegates in Pakistan may also impact financial market stability and potentially accelerate bitcoin's rally if a resolution is reached. The ICE BofA US Bond Market Option Volatility Estimate Index has shown a decrease in uncertainty around inflation and interest rates, which could be a positive signal for crypto bulls.