According to Ron Hammond, head of policy at Wintermute, a leading crypto market maker, the Crypto Clarity Act has a 30% chance of being passed this year. Hammond's outlook is cautious, pointing to the complex legislative process and uneven progress. The bill aims to establish clear regulations for crypto market structure in the US, including the oversight of digital assets by the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Despite the uncertainty, Hammond notes that there is momentum building in Washington, with lawmakers pushing to move the bill through committee.

However, he warns that timelines have been fluid for months and that there are significant hurdles to overcome, particularly from traditional financial institutions. The passage of the Clarity Act is seen as crucial for institutional adoption of crypto, as it would provide clear rules on which digital assets are securities versus commodities and how they can be traded and regulated.

The current fragmented framework has kept many large asset managers, banks, and pension funds on the sidelines due to legal and compliance risks. Hammond believes that a comprehensive market structure law would reduce ambiguity, giving institutions the confidence to increase their exposure to crypto.

However, he highlights that banks remain a major obstacle, particularly on the issue of stablecoin yield. Negotiations have been stuck, with a recent proposed compromise failing to satisfy either side.

The dispute has significant implications for the politics around the bill, particularly for Democrats who have accepted crypto industry funding. Hammond notes that additional political headwinds could emerge in the coming months, including scrutiny around former President Donald Trump's crypto-related dealings. Despite the challenges, Hammond believes that the bill still has a viable path forward, with progress in committee and continued negotiations potentially keeping it alive into mid-year. Wintermute, which is expanding its US footprint and growing its New York team, has a significant stake in the outcome of the Clarity Act.

Hammond emphasizes that passage in 2026 will require breakthroughs that have so far proved elusive, and for now, he maintains his estimate of a 30% chance of passage.