A Simple Yet Accurate Indicator Has Successfully Called Every Bitcoin Bottom Since 2015, But Remains Inactive

Beneath the daily price fluctuations, social media chatter, and macroeconomic headlines, a straightforward indicator has silently and accurately identified every major bitcoin market bottom since 2015. This indicator, which has not yet been triggered, implies that the broader bear market may still be in effect and the recent price rebound may be temporary. The indicator in question involves two simple moving averages on the price chart, representing bitcoin's average price over the past 50 and 100 weeks. When the 50-week average falls below the 100-week average, it is considered a bear market signal. This crossover has occurred three times in bitcoin's history, coinciding with the end of bear markets and marking significant price bottoms that have not been revisited. The signal has been a contrary indicator, marking bottoms rather than further downturns. As of April 17, the crossover has not occurred, suggesting that the bear market may still be intact and could worsen before finding a bottom. This also implies that the recent price bounce is likely a temporary recovery rather than the start of a new bull market. While historical patterns do not guarantee future outcomes, they can provide valuable insights. The persistence of record-high U.S. equities and potential institutional demand for Bitcoin ETFs could support a price rally, but for now, the indicator remains inactive.