Bitcoin Prices May Surge to $125,000 as Market Sentiment Shifts

Bitcoin was trading at around $74,700 during Asian morning hours on Friday, experiencing a minor 0.4% decline over 24 hours but still maintaining a 3.5% weekly gain, as the 10-day global equities rally paused ahead of the upcoming U.S.-Iran ceasefire expiry. Meanwhile, Ether dropped 1.4% to $2,327 but continued to lead the major cryptocurrencies with a 6% weekly gain, extending its outperformance from earlier in the week. Other notable movements included XRP holding steady at $1.43 with a 6.4% weekly gain, Solana increasing 2.7% to $87.67, BNB adding 0.7% to $629.89, and Dogecoin rising 5.6% on the week to $0.0976. The MSCI All Country World Index reached a record high on Thursday before slipping 0.1% in Asia, while the S&P 500 also hit an all-time high. Brent crude fell 1.2% to $98.20 following President Donald Trump's statement that prospects for a permanent Iran ceasefire were 'looking very good.' However, despite the market's positive reaction to the headlines, the underlying setup in bitcoin is what has caught the attention of some traders. Bitcoin's perpetual funding rates have turned deeply negative, reaching levels last seen in 2023, indicating that the market is heavily positioned against the price. According to Daniel Reis-Faria, CEO of ZeroStack, 'Funding rates this negative tell you the market is heavily short. If Bitcoin continues to move higher despite that, a lot of those positions could get liquidated, and the move can accelerate quickly.' Reis-Faria expects bitcoin could reach $125,000 in the next 30 to 60 days if the short base gets squeezed out. On the other hand, on-chain analyst CryptoVizArt notes that bitcoin's 'True Market Mean' suggests the average active holder is currently underwater, a metric that has historically aligned with bitcoin's worst periods. While these two reads may seem conflicting, they can both be true, with a short squeeze triggering an outsized rally that ultimately gets sold into by underwater holders. The dominant scenario likely depends on whether the U.S.-Iran ceasefire extension holds past next week.