Wintermute's head of policy, Ron Hammond, has expressed a cautious outlook on the Crypto Clarity Act, estimating its chances of passing this year at around 30%. Despite signs of progress, the legislative process is advancing unevenly, with many moving parts. The bill aims to establish rules for crypto market structure regulation in the US, including the oversight of digital assets by the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Hammond's estimate aligns with other market signals, with a recent Punchbowl survey of lobbyists and staffers putting the odds at 26%, and prediction market Kalshi hovering just above even odds. The uncertainty surrounding the bill's trajectory is underscored by the spread in these estimates.

Hammond sees incremental progress, with lawmakers pushing to move the bill through committee, possibly as early as April 20. However, he cautions that timelines have been fluid for months. The passage of the Crypto Clarity Act is widely seen as a key factor in institutional adoption of crypto, as it would establish clear rules around which digital assets are securities versus commodities and define how they can be traded, custodied, and regulated in the US. The current fragmented and uncertain framework has kept many large asset managers, banks, and pension funds on the sidelines due to legal and compliance risks.

A comprehensive market structure law would reduce this ambiguity, giving institutions the confidence to scale their exposure, launch new products, and integrate crypto more fully into traditional financial systems. However, hurdles remain, particularly around the issue of whether stablecoins should offer yield. Traditional financial institutions, especially banks, are the biggest obstacle, with negotiations stuck despite attempts to find a solution.

The dispute has already derailed at least one compromise, and expectations for a new version are tempered. The resistance from banks is shaping the politics around the bill, particularly for Democrats, who are navigating a difficult balancing act. Some lawmakers who have accepted crypto industry funding are now facing unresolved concerns around decentralized finance and anti-money laundering compliance.

Additional political headwinds could emerge in the coming months, potentially complicating Democratic support. Despite the friction, Hammond believes the bill still has a viable path forward, with progress in committee and continued negotiations keeping it alive into midyear. For Wintermute, the stakes are high, as the firm is expanding its US footprint and growing its New York team. The outcome of the Crypto Clarity Act is consequential, and while Hammond sees 'light at the end of the tunnel,' he emphasizes that passage in 2026 will require breakthroughs that have so far proved elusive.