Wintermute's head of policy, Ron Hammond, has expressed cautious optimism about the prospects of the Crypto Clarity Act, estimating its chances of passage this year at around 30%. This assessment comes despite momentum building in Washington.
Hammond pointed to the complex legislative process, which is advancing but at an uneven pace. The proposed legislation aims to establish clear guidelines for crypto market structure regulation in the U.S., including how the Securities and Exchange Commission and Commodity Futures Trading Commission can oversee digital assets. Hammond's prediction aligns with other market signals, such as a recent Punchbowl survey of lobbyists and staffers, which put the odds at 26%, and the prediction market Kalshi, which has been hovering just above even odds. The uncertainty surrounding the bill's trajectory is underscored by the varying estimates.
Hammond, who is set to speak at CoinDesk's Consensus Miami conference, acknowledges incremental progress, with lawmakers pushing to move the bill through committee and some aiming for a vote as early as April 20. However, he notes that such timelines have been fluid for months. The passage of the Crypto Clarity Act is widely regarded as crucial for institutional adoption of crypto, as it would provide clear rules on which digital assets are securities versus commodities and define how they can be traded, custodied, and regulated in the U.S.
The current fragmented and uncertain framework has kept many large asset managers, banks, and pension funds on the sidelines due to legal and compliance risks. A comprehensive market structure law would reduce ambiguity, giving institutions the confidence to increase their exposure, launch new products, and integrate crypto more fully into traditional financial systems.
However, significant hurdles remain, particularly from traditional financial institutions, which are opposed to stablecoins offering yield. According to Hammond, negotiations have been stuck, with attempts by various parties, including Coinbase and the White House, to find a solution, but banks have refused to compromise. The dispute has already derailed at least one proposed compromise, and expectations for a new version are tempered.
The resistance from banks is shaping the politics around the bill, especially for Democrats, who are navigating a difficult balancing act, particularly those who have accepted crypto industry funding. Hammond notes that some lawmakers are struggling to find a stance on the issue, given unresolved concerns around decentralized finance and anti-money laundering compliance. Additional political headwinds may emerge in the coming months, with Hammond flagging ongoing scrutiny around former President Donald Trump's crypto-related dealings as a potential flashpoint that could complicate Democratic support. Despite the challenges, Hammond believes the bill still has a viable path forward, with progress in committee and continued negotiations potentially keeping it alive into midyear, when political incentives may shift.
For Wintermute, the stakes are high, as the firm is expanding its U.S. footprint and growing its New York team. Hammond emphasized that the outcome of the Crypto Clarity Act is crucial, and while he sees 'light at the end of the tunnel,' he stresses that passage in 2026 will require breakthroughs that have so far proved elusive.