Bitcoin's Institutional Support Lacks Confidence Amidst Upcoming Economic Events

The price of bitcoin has seen a 7% increase since Sunday, but its recovery has stalled near $72,000 due to upcoming binary risks, including the US inflation report and US-Iran talks. Institutions are using call options to speculate on bitcoin's potential gains, with a focus on the $80,000 mark. However, they are also purchasing put options to protect against potential losses, as evident in the demand for downside protection. The options market shows a persistent bias towards put options, indicating a lingering concern about potential declines. The upcoming US consumer price index report is expected to show a significant increase in annualized inflation, primarily driven by rising energy prices. This could lead to increased volatility in the market, particularly if the core inflation figure exceeds expectations. The meeting between Iranian and US delegates in Pakistan may also impact financial market stability, with a potential end to the war and normalization of oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz likely to accelerate bitcoin's rally. The recent fluctuations in the ICE BofA US Bond Market Option Volatility Estimate Index, which reflects volatility in US Treasury futures, also suggest that the bond market is currently calm, which could be a positive signal for crypto bulls.