Bitcoin Faces Resistance as It Approaches Key Level, According to CryptoQuant

The surge in bitcoin's price towards $75,000 is encountering significant resistance due to an increase in supply, even as institutional demand remains stable. The recent price increase has been primarily driven by macroeconomic factors rather than a broad surge in speculative trading. U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs have seen consistent inflows, including a notable $240 million in a single session following Middle East geopolitical tensions, as reported by market maker Enflux. This buying activity has helped push BTC from around $71,000 to the mid-$70,000 range, despite traditional markets dealing with rising oil prices and shifting interest rate expectations. Enflux noted that this pattern reflects allocation behavior rather than investors chasing momentum. However, as bitcoin's price continues to rise, the market's dynamics are starting to shift. On-chain data suggests that supply is emerging more aggressively as prices approach a key cost-basis level for short-term holders, around $76,800, which is the average entry point for traders who accumulated during the last phase of the drawdown, according to CryptoQuant. In weaker market conditions, this level has often acted as resistance, as investors who were previously at a loss use rallies as an opportunity to exit at breakeven. Notably, the same level capped the bounce in January before prices reversed towards $60,000. CryptoQuant observed that bitcoin exchange inflows spiked to approximately 11,000 BTC per hour, the highest since late December, as prices tested the $75,000 to $76,000 range. At the same time, the average deposit size increased to about 2.25 BTC, the highest daily reading since mid-2024, suggesting that larger holders are driving the move. The share of large transfers jumped from below 10% to above 40% of total inflows within days, a shift that CryptoQuant said has historically coincided with increased selling pressure. This sets up a two-sided market, with ETF flows and macro trends providing steady demand on one side, and large holders appearing to reduce their exposure on the other, feeding liquidity into the market as prices approach a widely watched breakeven zone. The resulting market is less of a standoff and more of a handoff, where long-term holders appear to be distributing coins directly into ETF demand. The exchange inflows flagged by CryptoQuant and the ETF inflows tracked by Enflux are, in effect, two sides of the same transaction, visible in different datasets. The outcome depends on whether the new holders prove to be more committed than those exiting. This is a late-cycle pattern that can resolve in one of two ways. The result is a market that can move higher quickly on inflows but struggles to sustain those gains once supply builds. A sustained break above the mid-$70,000s would likely require demand to absorb a growing wave of sell pressure. Failing that, the balance could tilt the other way, leaving bitcoin vulnerable to a pullback towards the low-$70,000s, where the latest leg of the rally began.