Bitcoin Encounters Resistance at Key Level, CryptoQuant Reports

The surge in bitcoin's price towards $75,000 is being met with significant supply, even as institutional demand remains stable. The recent upward trend has been primarily driven by macroeconomic factors rather than a broad increase in speculative activity. US-listed spot bitcoin ETFs have seen consistent inflows this month, including approximately $240 million in a single session following geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, as reported by market maker Enflux. This buying activity helped lift BTC from around $71,000 to the mid-$70,000s, despite traditional markets facing rising oil prices and shifting interest rate expectations. According to Enflux, this pattern reflects allocation behavior rather than investors chasing momentum. However, as bitcoin's price continues to rise, the market's dynamics are starting to shift. On-chain data suggests that supply is becoming more aggressive as prices approach a key cost-basis level for short-term holders. The so-called realized price for recent buyers is around $76,800, which is the average entry point for traders who accumulated during the last phase of the decline, according to CryptoQuant. In weaker market conditions, this level has often acted as resistance, as investors who were previously at a loss use rallies to exit at breakeven. Notably, the same level capped the bounce in January almost to the dollar before prices reversed towards $60,000. CryptoQuant reported that bitcoin exchange inflows surged to around 11,000 BTC per hour, the highest since late December, as prices tested the $75,000 to $76,000 range. At the same time, the average deposit size increased to approximately 2.25 BTC, the highest daily reading since mid-2024, indicating that larger holders are driving the move. The share of large transfers jumped from below 10% to above 40% of total inflows within days, a shift that the firm said has historically coincided with increased distribution pressure. This sets up a two-sided market. On one hand, ETF flows and macro tailwinds continue to provide a steady source of demand. On the other hand, large holders appear to be using the rally to reduce exposure, feeding liquidity into the market as prices approach a widely watched breakeven zone. The result is less of a standoff and more of a handoff, where long-term holders appear to be distributing coins directly into ETF demand. The exchange inflows flagged by CryptoQuant and the ETF inflows tracked by Enflux are, in effect, two sides of the same transaction, visible in different datasets. The outcome depends on whether the new holders prove to be more committed than those exiting. This is a late-cycle pattern, and it can resolve in one of two ways. The result is a market that can move higher quickly on inflows but struggles to sustain those gains once supply builds. A sustained break above the mid-$70,000s would likely require demand to absorb a growing wave of sell pressure. Failing that, the balance could tilt the other way, leaving bitcoin vulnerable to a pullback towards the low-$70,000s, where the latest leg of the rally began.