Bitcoin Encounters Resistance at Key Level, According to CryptoQuant

The surge in bitcoin's price towards $75,000 is being met with significant selling pressure, just as institutional demand remains stable. The recent increase in price has been largely driven by macroeconomic factors rather than speculative activity, with U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs experiencing consistent inflows this month. A notable example is the $240 million inflow in a single session following geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. This investment helped lift bitcoin's price from around $71,000 to the mid-$70,000s, despite rising oil prices and shifting interest rate expectations in traditional markets. According to market maker Enflux, this pattern reflects allocation behavior rather than investors chasing momentum. However, as bitcoin's price continues to rise, the market's character is beginning to shift. On-chain data suggests that supply is emerging more aggressively as prices approach a key cost-basis level for short-term holders, around $76,800, which is the average entry point for traders who accumulated during the last phase of the drawdown. This level has often acted as resistance in weaker market regimes, as investors who were previously underwater use rallies to exit at breakeven. Notably, this same level capped the bounce in January before prices reversed towards $60,000. CryptoQuant reported that bitcoin exchange inflows spiked to approximately 11,000 BTC per hour, the highest since late December, as prices tested the $75,000 to $76,000 range. At the same time, the average deposit size increased to about 2.25 BTC, the highest daily reading since mid-2024, indicating that larger holders are driving the move. The share of large transfers jumped from below 10% to above 40% of total inflows within days, a shift that has historically coincided with increased distribution pressure. This sets up a two-sided market, with ETF flows and macro tailwinds providing a steady source of demand on one side, and large holders appearing to reduce their exposure on the other. The result is a market that can move higher quickly on inflows but struggles to sustain those gains once supply builds. A sustained break above the mid-$70,000s would likely require demand to absorb a growing wave of sell pressure. Failing that, the balance could tilt the other way, leaving bitcoin vulnerable to a pullback towards the low-$70,000s, where the latest leg of the rally began.